But before we launch into the review is is worth noting that the key economic news to start the week is Monday’s immigration figures.
These numbers show a continual pick up in immigration which is a positive factor for the housing market.
This week’s commentary from Westpac reiterates the view already expressed that if you are a lender and are sitting on a floating rate waiting to fix; wait no longer. It is suggesting go for either a six month or one-year term.
ANZ in its Market Focus takes a different view ands says stay floating. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, nothing has materially changed to alter our view. We continue to favour staying floating. The yield curve remains steep which means paying a higher rate for certainty. The short end is the cheapest part of the curve to borrow at. Its report has a useful set of gauges to measure interest rates by.
And, because economists aren’t prone to agree on things, ASB is predicting that the market has under-estimated the central bank’s willingness to cut the OCR further.
ASB has “pencilled in two 25 basis point cuts for September and October, although the timing of these are partly dependent on the NZ dollar.”
Strategic Risk Analysis – Rodney Dickens provides another of his highly engaging commentaries this week.
In Rodney’s Ravings he presents an argument which looks at that very issue the ASB Bank raises – the NZ Dollar.
He explains why cutting the OCR in the current environment is more likely to result in a higher rather than lower NZD.
"The experience in 1993 provides a useful case study for why lower interest rates can result in a higher NZD.
However, if the swine flu has a sufficiently large negative economic impact it results in further OCR cuts this is a different matter and may or may not result in a lower NZD."
Meanwhile BNZ Capital Markets has the most technical analysis on interest rates. Its report this week, while complex, doesn’t have too much in the way of interest rate predictions.
