Up to 4% could be shaved off Auckland’s house prices - thanks to the Reserve Bank’s new LVR rules.
Tighter LVR restrictions for Auckland investors will reduce Auckland house price growth by 2- 4% in the first year, the RBNZ has estimated in a new consultation paper.
At the same time, a loosening of the rules around required deposits for property outside of Auckland, should see house price growth of about 1% and a 4% increase in house sales.
The RBNZ expected that the investor restrictions, which will require a 30% deposit when borrowing for an investment property, will reduce Auckland housing market transactions by 7% in the first year.
This would equate to a 20% decline in property purchases by investors in Auckland.
Further, the RBNZ expected the restriction to reduce the share of high-LVR lending to owner occupiers by about 2%.
This will result in a further decline in housing market transactions of about 1%.
Over time, the policy will reduce the number of investors with debt in excess of 70% secured on Auckland property to a quarter, the RBNZ paper stated.
“This would reduce the proportion of loans in a position of negative equity in the event of a 30-40% decline in Auckland house prices.”
The RBNZ has said it believes this will better maintain financial stability, which is one of its main objectives.
While several property investor advocates are concerned that the policy will have a negative impact on the rental market, the RBNZ expected that the impact will be limited.
The RBNZ released the paper in preparation for the new rules, which come into force on October 1, and will be consulting on it until July 13.
Discussion of policy objectives and expectations, speed limits, mixed loans, measurement periods and transition arrangements are included in the paper which can be read here.
